World Cup preview - Part 2
Group E
Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras
The intricacies of FIFAs world ranking system are only marginally less opaque than those of their host-country selection/trough-feeding process. And so Switzerland are apparently the sixth best team in the world, despite their utter failure to do anything of note at a major championships. Maybe it’s all a deliberate ploy to give some lower-ranked teams a better chance of success – certainly Ecuador and Honduras will be far happier than had they drawn any of the other seeds, all of whom are actually any good.
They do have the mercurial French to worry about, however. Their fantastic display of stereotype-confirming petulance in South Africa took some of the heat off England’s pathetic showing, and it’s true that they looked down and out after the first leg of their playoff against Ukraine. However, they did have the misfortune to be drawn in Spain’s qualifying group, practically condemning them to the playoffs from the off, and since that remarkable second-leg comeback France have looked like a strong, exciting team again, packed with familiar names. Plus, Franck Ribery’s injury makes them instantly more likeable. A canny each-way bet, methinks. (NB I have no idea how World Cup betting works.)
Aside from their ultra-tedious defeat to England in 2006, the main thing I know about Ecuador is that they were unbeaten at home during qualifying, where they play at nearly 3,000 metres above sea level in Quito. However, they lost away to Argentina, Chile, Columbia, Paraguay, and even Peru. The highest altitude at which they will play in the group stages is 1,172m at the Estadio Nacional in Brasilia. You do the maths.
Meanwhile, anyone who their saw their ‘friendly’ with England at the weekend will know what Honduras are about. In fairness to them, if you’d crashed out at the last World Cup without scoring a goal then maybe you would favour the “if you can’t beat ‘em, then beat ‘em up” approach. Frankly, a goal is about the best they can hope for.
Group F
Argentina, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Iran, Nigeria
Group F follows a similar pattern to its alphabetical predecessor – one top team, a couple of averageish ones and one bunch of no-hopers – except that here the best team is also the seed. Everything looks set for Argentina to go very deep in this tournament. If they win this group and all goes to form, Switzerland and Portugal would be standing in the way of a first semi-final since 1990, which seems incredible given their record until then. Last time around under the ‘guidance’ of a certain Senor Maradona they cruised through to the quarter-finals before being ambushed by Germany. Now their squad looks even better, with Messi, Higuain, Lavezzi, Aguero and Di Maria forming a ridiculous array of attacking riches, and with a coach who actually knows what he’s doing, so who needs a defence anyway?
Bosnia also scored a shedload of goals in qualifying, but in terms of name recognition they are essentially Edin Dzeko and 22 other blokes. Dzeko would stroll into 95% of club sides, and yet is something of an afterthought at Man City because he’s not ultra-skilful and because Sergio Aguero is a bit better. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you modern football.
The Eastern European nations seem to be taking it in turns to qualify for major championships – Serbia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Slovakia have all done it in recent times, and aside from the Croats, none of them have really grabbed a foothold into the upper echelons of world football. Bosnia don’t look like changing that. Maybe in two years’ time the likes of Bulgaria and Romania can have a go at the Euro finals. We kinda miss you guys.
Next up it’s Nigeria – cue that old Pele chestnut about an African team winning the World Cup before the 20th century was out. To be fair, he didn’t know at the time that most of Nigeria’s then all-conquering under-21 side were closer to retirement age than childhood, although we don’t know what his excuse is for any of the other nonsense he’s spouted over the years.
On paper Nigeria are certainly not the strongest African squad in Brazil, most of their recognisable names being Premier League journeymen like Joseph Yobo, Peter Odemwingie and – yes – Shola Ameobi. Mind you, they beat the Ivory Coast handily on their way to winning the last Africa Cup of Nations, and apparently international football transforms Jon Obi Mikel from slightly underwhelming water-carrier to marauding midfield dynamo, so there is hope.
Which is more than can be said for Iran, who currently resembling a disorganised rabble. Entirely coincidentally, their manager is Carlos Quieroz, on a £2 million a year contract. Given that they are pretty much nailed on to qualify for World Cups anyway, you’d think they’d have something better to spend their money on (nuclear warheads, for example).
Group G
Germany, Portugal, Ghana, United States
Forget about Group B - this looks like the most evenly-balanced group by far. Germany are actually in something of a crisis, their last major trophy win dating all the way back to 1996. And this is after radically overhauling their national coaching structure and playing style to produce a conveyor belt of cultured and graceful attacking players. I know, your heart bleeds for them doesn’t it?
Much has been made of the deceptively young-looking Joachim Loew’s selection of one recognised central striker in his 23-man squad, amid suggestions that an over-reliance on false nines and other such hipster fads will scupper their chances. In the last two major championships though, there was nothing but harmony emanating from the squad, and look where it got them. Maybe a little adversity is what they need.
Portugal are perennially placed within the international top tier without ever truly doing much to deserve it. Once again they needed to qualify via the playoffs, where Cristiano outperformed Zlatan to ensure that the finals would be graced with his presence, as another 20 men watched on. Oh ok, dismissing the Portuguese as a one-man team is a tad unfair, though the old chestnut about them not having anyone who can actually stick the ball in the net still holds true bar our friend Ronnie (yes, Helder Postiga’s career is still going).
In fairness to Cristiano, even if Messi is the greater talent, he basically comes across as a run-of-the-mill bloke with questionable dress sense. Whereas a pouting, preening, monstrously ego-driven megastar in full flow is exactly what football needs. Whether he’ll get to the business end of the tournament is another question. (SPOILER: he won’t).
Football fans are delightfully one-eyed, and so Ghana will forever be preserved in most memories as they were in 2010 - the plucky victims of an outrageous piece of cheating. That quarter-final was in truth the only genuinely exciting match I saw in South Africa, the eight others being scarcely worth the very expensive month-long trip (#humblebrag), and it was heartbreaking to witness the hopes of an entire continent be dashed in such a manner. However, with Asamoah Gyan, who missed that injury-time penalty, now wasting his peak years earning silly money in the Middle East, and Kevin-Prince Boateng definitely being a bit of a tool, they probably don’t deserve that many of our sympathies. There’s certainly a chance of them escaping this group at one of the European teams’ expense, but as recent results haven’t been spectacular, an early exit is the most likely scenario, plucky or otherwise.
In some ways it would be nice if the USA became a footballing powerhouse, as a game still dominated by Europe and South America would gain a new power base and become that bit more global. On the other hand, can you imagine how irritating it would be if the Yanks regularly beat the elite teams? We’d never hear the bloody end of it. At the moment Jurgen Klinsmann is involved in a larger project which is attempting to transform the American game from top to bottom, and most of this squad is playing in the MLS, which you’d assume is not the best preparation for a World Cup. But MLS attendances actually seems to be getting steadily bigger and plenty of kids are playing at grassroots level, so who knows, if the NFL ends up imploding in a blizzard of drug scandals, concussions and lawsuits then maybe ‘soccer’ can step up to plug the gap. Be afraid.
Group H
Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
When does a dark horse stop being a dark horse? Belgium are surely way past that point now, as every man and his dog expects them to do well here and they have a pretty kind draw. What Belgium have done is no different to what the Germans did and what England are sadly unlikely to ever do - a complete overhaul of coaching from the top down, and a uniform style imposed at all national team levels. Belgium though started from a lower base than the Germans, which makes the emergence of their current crop of stars - a great many of whom are plying their trade in the Premier League - all the more impressive.
This is Romelu Lukaku's ideal opportunity to show Jose Mourinho what he's missing. Bag a few goals and Jose will have no choice but to sit up and applaud in admiration, before packing him off on loan again to someone who won’t hurt Chelsea’s title bid, possibly Spurs.
Russia are lead by Fabio Capello, who should probably count himself lucky to have another crack at the World Cup after that shambles four years ago (we English have long memories). They qualified ahead of Portugal without too much bother, but there's hardly a surplus of big-name talent in their squad and although it's probably a tad unfair on the players, I think their Dear Leader's recent Ukranian antics mean that few tears would be shed if Capello's reverse Midas touch (turning qualifying gold into base rubbish in the tournament proper) once more came to pass.
They may well get to at least the last 16 though, as neither Algeria nor South Korea look like particularly imposing opposition. North African teams have a reputation for dour football, which was certainly borne out by that horrific 0-0 draw between us and the Algerians in Cape Town (I know, my being at the World Cup was such a struggle), but based purely on watching midfielder Adlene Guedioura for Wolves a couple of years back, it may be more of a case of them not lacking in skills but having zero ability to join them up in any coherent way.
Meanwhile, it's probably a tad racist to lump the Koreans in with their Japanese neighbours, but they seem to be in similar positions - near-guaranteed to qualify, exporting steadily more players to the European leagues, yet unable to reach the level of the top European and South American nations. As with the USA, it would be marvellous if these nations could one day become genuine threats to this bi-continental hegemony, but it's not going to happen anytime soon. And now I've gotten to use the word 'hegemony', my work is nearly done.
Conclusion
In a prediction league at work, over 75% of people have plumped for a Brazil-Argentina final, which sounds far too obvious and thus almost certainly won’t happen. I can’t recall anybody foreseeing Spain and Holland going head to head for the title in Johannesburg. See, this is why I don’t gamble.
Most of us would settle for an entertaining tournament to banish the memories of the last few underwhelming ones – for the wealth of attacking talent to be allowed to play, for defences to be creaky, and for deathly possession-for-its-own-sake tiki-taka not to triumph yet again. Fingers crossed.
Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras
The intricacies of FIFAs world ranking system are only marginally less opaque than those of their host-country selection/trough-feeding process. And so Switzerland are apparently the sixth best team in the world, despite their utter failure to do anything of note at a major championships. Maybe it’s all a deliberate ploy to give some lower-ranked teams a better chance of success – certainly Ecuador and Honduras will be far happier than had they drawn any of the other seeds, all of whom are actually any good.
They do have the mercurial French to worry about, however. Their fantastic display of stereotype-confirming petulance in South Africa took some of the heat off England’s pathetic showing, and it’s true that they looked down and out after the first leg of their playoff against Ukraine. However, they did have the misfortune to be drawn in Spain’s qualifying group, practically condemning them to the playoffs from the off, and since that remarkable second-leg comeback France have looked like a strong, exciting team again, packed with familiar names. Plus, Franck Ribery’s injury makes them instantly more likeable. A canny each-way bet, methinks. (NB I have no idea how World Cup betting works.)
Aside from their ultra-tedious defeat to England in 2006, the main thing I know about Ecuador is that they were unbeaten at home during qualifying, where they play at nearly 3,000 metres above sea level in Quito. However, they lost away to Argentina, Chile, Columbia, Paraguay, and even Peru. The highest altitude at which they will play in the group stages is 1,172m at the Estadio Nacional in Brasilia. You do the maths.
Meanwhile, anyone who their saw their ‘friendly’ with England at the weekend will know what Honduras are about. In fairness to them, if you’d crashed out at the last World Cup without scoring a goal then maybe you would favour the “if you can’t beat ‘em, then beat ‘em up” approach. Frankly, a goal is about the best they can hope for.
Group F
Argentina, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Iran, Nigeria
Group F follows a similar pattern to its alphabetical predecessor – one top team, a couple of averageish ones and one bunch of no-hopers – except that here the best team is also the seed. Everything looks set for Argentina to go very deep in this tournament. If they win this group and all goes to form, Switzerland and Portugal would be standing in the way of a first semi-final since 1990, which seems incredible given their record until then. Last time around under the ‘guidance’ of a certain Senor Maradona they cruised through to the quarter-finals before being ambushed by Germany. Now their squad looks even better, with Messi, Higuain, Lavezzi, Aguero and Di Maria forming a ridiculous array of attacking riches, and with a coach who actually knows what he’s doing, so who needs a defence anyway?
Bosnia also scored a shedload of goals in qualifying, but in terms of name recognition they are essentially Edin Dzeko and 22 other blokes. Dzeko would stroll into 95% of club sides, and yet is something of an afterthought at Man City because he’s not ultra-skilful and because Sergio Aguero is a bit better. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you modern football.
The Eastern European nations seem to be taking it in turns to qualify for major championships – Serbia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Slovakia have all done it in recent times, and aside from the Croats, none of them have really grabbed a foothold into the upper echelons of world football. Bosnia don’t look like changing that. Maybe in two years’ time the likes of Bulgaria and Romania can have a go at the Euro finals. We kinda miss you guys.
Next up it’s Nigeria – cue that old Pele chestnut about an African team winning the World Cup before the 20th century was out. To be fair, he didn’t know at the time that most of Nigeria’s then all-conquering under-21 side were closer to retirement age than childhood, although we don’t know what his excuse is for any of the other nonsense he’s spouted over the years.
On paper Nigeria are certainly not the strongest African squad in Brazil, most of their recognisable names being Premier League journeymen like Joseph Yobo, Peter Odemwingie and – yes – Shola Ameobi. Mind you, they beat the Ivory Coast handily on their way to winning the last Africa Cup of Nations, and apparently international football transforms Jon Obi Mikel from slightly underwhelming water-carrier to marauding midfield dynamo, so there is hope.
Which is more than can be said for Iran, who currently resembling a disorganised rabble. Entirely coincidentally, their manager is Carlos Quieroz, on a £2 million a year contract. Given that they are pretty much nailed on to qualify for World Cups anyway, you’d think they’d have something better to spend their money on (nuclear warheads, for example).
Group G
Germany, Portugal, Ghana, United States
Forget about Group B - this looks like the most evenly-balanced group by far. Germany are actually in something of a crisis, their last major trophy win dating all the way back to 1996. And this is after radically overhauling their national coaching structure and playing style to produce a conveyor belt of cultured and graceful attacking players. I know, your heart bleeds for them doesn’t it?
Much has been made of the deceptively young-looking Joachim Loew’s selection of one recognised central striker in his 23-man squad, amid suggestions that an over-reliance on false nines and other such hipster fads will scupper their chances. In the last two major championships though, there was nothing but harmony emanating from the squad, and look where it got them. Maybe a little adversity is what they need.
Portugal are perennially placed within the international top tier without ever truly doing much to deserve it. Once again they needed to qualify via the playoffs, where Cristiano outperformed Zlatan to ensure that the finals would be graced with his presence, as another 20 men watched on. Oh ok, dismissing the Portuguese as a one-man team is a tad unfair, though the old chestnut about them not having anyone who can actually stick the ball in the net still holds true bar our friend Ronnie (yes, Helder Postiga’s career is still going).
In fairness to Cristiano, even if Messi is the greater talent, he basically comes across as a run-of-the-mill bloke with questionable dress sense. Whereas a pouting, preening, monstrously ego-driven megastar in full flow is exactly what football needs. Whether he’ll get to the business end of the tournament is another question. (SPOILER: he won’t).
Football fans are delightfully one-eyed, and so Ghana will forever be preserved in most memories as they were in 2010 - the plucky victims of an outrageous piece of cheating. That quarter-final was in truth the only genuinely exciting match I saw in South Africa, the eight others being scarcely worth the very expensive month-long trip (#humblebrag), and it was heartbreaking to witness the hopes of an entire continent be dashed in such a manner. However, with Asamoah Gyan, who missed that injury-time penalty, now wasting his peak years earning silly money in the Middle East, and Kevin-Prince Boateng definitely being a bit of a tool, they probably don’t deserve that many of our sympathies. There’s certainly a chance of them escaping this group at one of the European teams’ expense, but as recent results haven’t been spectacular, an early exit is the most likely scenario, plucky or otherwise.
In some ways it would be nice if the USA became a footballing powerhouse, as a game still dominated by Europe and South America would gain a new power base and become that bit more global. On the other hand, can you imagine how irritating it would be if the Yanks regularly beat the elite teams? We’d never hear the bloody end of it. At the moment Jurgen Klinsmann is involved in a larger project which is attempting to transform the American game from top to bottom, and most of this squad is playing in the MLS, which you’d assume is not the best preparation for a World Cup. But MLS attendances actually seems to be getting steadily bigger and plenty of kids are playing at grassroots level, so who knows, if the NFL ends up imploding in a blizzard of drug scandals, concussions and lawsuits then maybe ‘soccer’ can step up to plug the gap. Be afraid.
Group H
Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
When does a dark horse stop being a dark horse? Belgium are surely way past that point now, as every man and his dog expects them to do well here and they have a pretty kind draw. What Belgium have done is no different to what the Germans did and what England are sadly unlikely to ever do - a complete overhaul of coaching from the top down, and a uniform style imposed at all national team levels. Belgium though started from a lower base than the Germans, which makes the emergence of their current crop of stars - a great many of whom are plying their trade in the Premier League - all the more impressive.
This is Romelu Lukaku's ideal opportunity to show Jose Mourinho what he's missing. Bag a few goals and Jose will have no choice but to sit up and applaud in admiration, before packing him off on loan again to someone who won’t hurt Chelsea’s title bid, possibly Spurs.
Russia are lead by Fabio Capello, who should probably count himself lucky to have another crack at the World Cup after that shambles four years ago (we English have long memories). They qualified ahead of Portugal without too much bother, but there's hardly a surplus of big-name talent in their squad and although it's probably a tad unfair on the players, I think their Dear Leader's recent Ukranian antics mean that few tears would be shed if Capello's reverse Midas touch (turning qualifying gold into base rubbish in the tournament proper) once more came to pass.
They may well get to at least the last 16 though, as neither Algeria nor South Korea look like particularly imposing opposition. North African teams have a reputation for dour football, which was certainly borne out by that horrific 0-0 draw between us and the Algerians in Cape Town (I know, my being at the World Cup was such a struggle), but based purely on watching midfielder Adlene Guedioura for Wolves a couple of years back, it may be more of a case of them not lacking in skills but having zero ability to join them up in any coherent way.
Meanwhile, it's probably a tad racist to lump the Koreans in with their Japanese neighbours, but they seem to be in similar positions - near-guaranteed to qualify, exporting steadily more players to the European leagues, yet unable to reach the level of the top European and South American nations. As with the USA, it would be marvellous if these nations could one day become genuine threats to this bi-continental hegemony, but it's not going to happen anytime soon. And now I've gotten to use the word 'hegemony', my work is nearly done.
Conclusion
In a prediction league at work, over 75% of people have plumped for a Brazil-Argentina final, which sounds far too obvious and thus almost certainly won’t happen. I can’t recall anybody foreseeing Spain and Holland going head to head for the title in Johannesburg. See, this is why I don’t gamble.
Most of us would settle for an entertaining tournament to banish the memories of the last few underwhelming ones – for the wealth of attacking talent to be allowed to play, for defences to be creaky, and for deathly possession-for-its-own-sake tiki-taka not to triumph yet again. Fingers crossed.
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