World Cup preview - Pt 1

Although World Cup fever has been somewhat tainted by the shock discovery that the bidding for the Qatar 2022 edition may not have been entirely above board, the show must go on and so here is my exclusive, highly-informed preview:

Group A

Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon

It’s hard to think of this group as anything other than a gentle warm-up for the hosts. The Croats have some useful attacking talents in Luka Modric and Mario Mandzukic, but they’ve never come close to replicating their third place finish of 1998. Us Englanders being hopelessly blinkered, we often view fellow European nations in relation to ourselves, and although they’ve been known to beat us on occasion (thanks for that, Mr MacLaren), Croatia basically sit as one of those B-level European teams who we tend to get drawn with in qualifying fairly regularly, yet rarely do they look like a significant threat to our hopes. Unlucky, lads.

Mexico are like clockwork - generally qualifying from their group with little fanfare bar the odd outrageous piece of goalkeeping attire, only to be knocked out in the round of 16. The only significant blips were when they reached the Quarter Finals in 1970 and 1986 (both of which they hosted), and 1990, when they were banned. Javier Hernandez (who gets to wear his nickname on his shirt, which hardly seems fair) has an impressive scoring record for his country, but how will a season of watching turgid Moyes-ball from the bench have affected him? They also suffered the indignity of having to play New Zealand in a playoff just to get this far, which hardly bodes well.

Cameroon, meanwhile, are like the old drunk at the bar whose initial anecdote is mildly amusing, until you realise he intends to repeat it ad nauseum until one or both of you passes out. Italia ’90 was of course tremendous for them but since then, despite becoming a semi-permanent fixture in the finals, their most notable moment was conceding five goals to one striker in a single match. Jose Mourinho will happily tell you that their talisman Samuel Eto’o can only go a couple of times a month these days, which isn’t ideal for tournament football. Fortunately for him, he’ll only be needed for three games max. 

Brazil will be full of confidence following last year’s Confederations Cup win. Homefield advantage should still benefit the players, notwithstanding that most of them are used to somewhat colder climes. Interestingly, the midfield chunk of their squad is dominated by Premiership players, (including Paulinho, not considered a guaranteed starter by the tactical genius that is Tim Sherwood), but English-based defenders and strikers are there none, unless you count keeper Julio Cesar who is somehow still on QPR’s books. Certainly Chelsea’s trio of Ramires, Willian and Oscar will enjoy the chance to feed an actual goalscoring striker in the form of Neymar. A possible rematch with Spain or the Netherlands in the next round would be tasty.

Group B

Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia

Group B is in the running for the coveted ‘Group of Death’ award, but is sadly let down by Australia. Having given themselves a good shot at perennial qualification after finagling their way into the Asian confederation, they’re now hampered by all their self-styled ‘golden generation’ retiring or becoming crap at once. They head into a formidable group armed with only a couple of familiar names (Tim Cahill and the higly un-Aussie-sounding Mile Jedinak) and a bunch of wide-eyed cannon fodder. Strewth!

Speaking of death, the last rites were read for Spain’s beloved tiki taka a while ago. All good things must come to an end, of course -  Barcelona have certainly become a bit crap by their lofty standards, and Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets et al aren’t getting any younger, but if I had to pick one of the big European teams to implode in this tournament, it wouldn’t be them. A dignified, technically impressive yet ultimately rather tedious latter-stage exit awaits.

Speaking of implosions, here come those crazy Dutch. It’s impossible to predict which Holland (Holland? Netherlands? Whatever) will turn up to a major finals – you could argue that Louis Van Gaal having one eye on his shiny new club management gig is a bad omen, but they could just as easily storm their way through to the final again after their Euro 2012 disaster. Maybe they will try to play football against Spain this time around instead of opting for the ‘kick anything that moves’ approach that made the 2010 final so unedifying (although if you thought it was underwhelming on telly, you should have tried sitting directly behind the goal with most of your view blocked by photographers).

Chile, meanwhile, were the hipster’s choice before Belgium came along. Although now everyone’s talking about the Belgians, perhaps fashion’s fickle finger has dismissed them as sell-outs and turned back to the home of Bielsisme – the high-intensity pressing game so beloved of Jonathan Wilson and other football writers who actually know a bit about tactics. Chile have an arguable advantage in that they play Australia first, giving them the chance to rack up a few goals early doors. Then even if they come a cropper against the Spanish, a result against Dutch in their third match would most likely see them through. Time to see how well the fabled South American home advantage really works.

Group C

Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan

For every Group of Death, or near-death, yin/yang rules dictate that there must be a group of equivalent crapness. Which brings us to Group C. Before the draw, Columbia looked to be one of the more vulnerable of the top seeds – they don’t have much of a World Cup pedigree, and they will miss the unfortunately-crocked Radamel Falcao. But fate has dealt them what looks to be a straightforward passage to round 2.

Greece now qualify for tournaments with depressing regularity, yet have never threatened to do anything even remotely exciting since their unlikely 2004 triumph. They do have a supposedly great striker in Kostas Mitroglou, who moved to the Premier League for £12 million in January and then only played for half an hour, but that story is more about Fulham being a clusterfuck rather than Greece. See? Boring.

Mind you, only those of us present in Pretoria in 2010 to witness the Japan-Paraguay round of 16 match can claim to know true footballing boredom. I literally don’t remember a thing about the match until the penalty shootout – thankfully the Japanese fans were entertaining and the stadium was cool, or else sleep or death would have been the only options. In fairness to our Far Eastern friends, they don’t have a reputation for particularly dull football, so the fault probably lay with Paraguay (trust me, their other games weren’t much better).

Japan seem to be at a crossroads, qualifying easily for every finals and exporting steadily more players to the big European leagues, but without sufficient domestic infrastructure or a competitive enough fixture list to truly break through at international level. Maybe they should take a leaf from the Aussies’ book and apply to join a better continent instead. In fact, Kazakhstan successfully applied to play in Europe rather than Asia, which has made them the footballing powerhouse they are today.

I had a far better experience watching the Ivory Coast lose out cruelly to the Dutch in the Munich Fan Park in 2006. The country who’d rather you call it Côte d’Ivoire has been on the receiving end of very unkind draws in the last two tournaments, also having to face Argentina in Germany, and lumped in with Brazil and Portugal last time out. Unfortunately their own Golden Generation is now past its peak, but Didier Drogba still has that talismanic, albeit crazed, presence and Yaya Toure has been an incredible goal and assist machine this season when not sulking about cake. This could be their chance to go some way into the tournament and finally fulfil some of that promise.

Group D

Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy

Ing-er-land, Ing-er-land, Ing-er-land! Well, not so much anymore. Was it Fabio Capello’s weird squad choices, Rob Green’s butterfingers, Wayne Rooney’s to-the-camera petulance, John Terry’s feeble attemps at mutiny (the French showed us how it was really done), the technical chasm between us and the Germans, or all of the above? Whatever the case, England’s ill-fated campaign in South Africa seemed to drain the whole nation of its misplaced footballing confidence.

The expectation shift between then and Euro 2012 was so decisive that the mere avoidance of embarrassment in Polkraine represented a triumph. Optimism has been bubbling up a little over the last few weeks, mainly due to the replacement of all but the last embers of the Golden Generation (TM) with what on paper is an exciting and seemingly more relatable crop of youngsters (although Mark Clattenburg may beg to differ). Player-for-player, the 2014 squad rather pales in comparison to earlier vintages, but in Roy Hodgson we do at least have a manager with a track record of creating solid teams from uninspiring parts.

The task of escaping Group D may well be made easier by Italy, who have gone seven games without a win at the time of writing and seem to be a team in transition. Nobody really gives a toss about Serie A at the moment, so clearly the national team will suffer by association. I’m confident that the game in the sauna-like Manaus will be a gentle 0-0 kickabout, which then essentially means that whoever does better against Uruguay is likely to go through. And because we’ll line up with several club teammates of Luis Suarez, we’ll surely be able to cope with anything he can throw at us (hands, teeth, etc), even if he is fully fit.

And let’s not forget that although the Uruguayans have some impressive firepower upfront, their record in qualifying was actually quite poor, and in finishing 4th in 2010 they only had to get past Mexico, South Africa, an imploding France side, South Korea and Ghana, to whom they of course should have lost if it wasn’t for that pesky gap-toothed kid. And I’m not even going to bother dismissing Costa Rica. See – we have nothing to worry about. Now, what was I saying earlier about misplaced confidence?

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Pt 2 to follow shortly...